Super Bowl At Home Betting Games
2021年11月7日Register here: http://gg.gg/whkzb
*Super Bowl Betting Games To Play At Home
*Fun Super Bowl Betting Games
*Super Bowl Party Betting Games
*College Bowl Game Betting Lines
*Super Bowl At Home Betting Games To Play
The Super Bowl is the most-watched American event of the year, as both casual. Thanks to innovation and tech growth, you’re now able to bet on the big game without ever needing to leave your home, office, or lazy boy. We’re talking about online Super Bowl betting apps! If you want to get into the action fast, but in a safe and reputable manner, check out one of the sports betting sites we’ve listed at the top of.
*The choices with this game are endless with hundreds of props to choose from. By far the easiest and most passive game to play on a Super Bowl Sunday with your friends is “pass the cup”. The game is simple, the players put money into a cup and then it.
*Moneyline Betting. Betting on the moneyline is the easiest Super Bowl bet you can make.
Super Bowl LV is upon us. The Chiefs and Buccaneers are the last teams standing, and ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian (1-2 last week, 23-36-3 overall), Joe Fortenbaugh (1-1, 38-59-1), Anita Marks (7-14, 128-144-2), Preston Johnson (0-0, 16-20), Mike Clay (4-0, 29-18-1), Tyler Fulghum (3-3, 70-96-3), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (0-1, 35-26), Seth Walder (1-2, 54-33) of ESPN Analytics and Aaron Schatz (0-2, 44-53-2) of Football Outsiders are here to tell us what they like for the biggest betting day of the year.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Tuesday; picks on lines available at time of posting.
To jump to each section, click here: Game bets | Game props | Player props | Bonus props | Game script propsSuper Bowl LV best betsKansas City Chiefs (-3, 56.5) vs. Tampa Bay BuccaneersHistory of the spread
Underdogs have covered 12 of the last 20 Super Bowls, but favorites hold a 27-25-2 edge overall. 5dimes sportsbook login. The favored Patriots trailed 28-3 in Super Bowl LI but forced OT and then won -- and covered the 3-point spread -- on James White’s TD on the first possession.Chiefs -3
Kezirian: It’s easy to make a case for each team, so I am excited to watch, and hopefully the Super Bowl will deliver. I am siding with the Chiefs because the offense is not something I want to fade. Obviously, the offensive line injuries concern me. The Tampa defense is also potent, ranking in the top five in both rush and pass defense. But, ultimately, if the Chiefs play remotely close to their best version, no one can hang with them. Tom Brady is a force, but I will take the Chiefs.
Johnson: My main concern for the Bucs and Brady is the pressure that Kansas City was able to generate rushing four against the Bills. Josh Allen was able to evade the pressure and buy time, but even despite that, the coverage for the Chiefs was pristine and Allen wasn’t able to make many plays. Brady’s lack of mobility could wind up being a major issue, and if the counter is dump-offs and check-downs over and over, I imagine Kansas City will absolutely live with that.
My second concern for Tampa Bay is the injuries to their safeties and the fact that they are going up against a Patrick Mahomes-led Andy Reid offense. I don’t envision enough stops for the Bucs ultimately, and I think it’s underpriced at a flat -3.
Fortenbaugh: All the concerns we had about Kansas City at the end of the regular season were answered during the AFC Championship Game when the Chiefs turned a 9-0 deficit into a 21-9 lead in roughly 10 minutes. Tampa Bay ranks fifth in the NFL in blitz rate, but nobody can dissect and defeat the blitz quite like Mahomes.
Bearman: I’ll preface this by saying I don’t like betting against the GOAT. He has proved time and time again that once you think he is done, he turns around and wins another. A seventh Super Bowl title would be the icing on a cake that doesn’t even need icing for TB12 and his legacy. That being said, this is arguably the top opponent Brady has faced in the big game. You have to go back to his first Super Bowl vs. the Rams to find the only other time in the 10 appearances in which he was an underdog. And for good reason. The defending champion Chiefs were my pick back in August (real wise, I know), and I see no reason to back away from it now. The combination of an explosive offense and a good secondary that can slow down the Bucs WRs (Clay notes below that they are among the best at slowing elite WRs) should lead to the game’s first repeat since Brady’s Patriots won back-to-back following 2003-04 seasons. I just don’t see the Bucs being able to keep up score for score in this one.
The Chiefs have looked vulnerable at times, including during a stretch of one cover over nine games, but they still finished 14-2 with the top seed in the AFC. I am not too worried about the cover, because if they win, I believe they cover. The spread has not come into play in the last 11 championship games, with winners being 46-6-2 ATS overall. If you like the Chiefs, lay the 3, especially before it possibly moves to 3.5. Yes, the OL injuries area a concern for KC, but so are the ones in the Bucs secondary. At the end of the day, I am siding with Mahomes beating the Bucs secondary over the Bucs getting to Mahomes.
Schatz: Most of my picks in this column over the course of the season have been based on top-line numbers. But to pick the Super Bowl, I’m going a bit further down. I’ve come around to the ’Kansas City flip the switch’ theory that suggests the Chiefs coasted whenever they had a big lead during the regular season. That depressed their numbers and led to the Chiefs finishing the regular season just sixth in DVOA (fifth without Week 17), while Tampa Bay, despite more losses, was more impressive in the play-by-play breakdown and ranked second. The question is: how much does Kansas City’s performance defending those big late leads mean?
The Chiefs ranked 21st on offense with a lead of more than a touchdown in the fourth quarter and 20th on defense. The Bucs were very good on both sides of the ball in those same situations. Take out those situations, and the Chiefs were the better team this season -- it’s narrow, but they have the edge. And if we look at the AFC Championship Game and the divisional round win over Cleveland before Mahomes got hurt, the Chiefs put up their two best total performances of the year -- strong on defense and spectacular on offense. It’s enough for me to lean toward the Chiefs. If you get a line of 3.5 points, I would lean toward the Bucs, but at 3 I’m picking Kansas City.
Marks: The Buccaneers have reached the Super Bowl with some smoke and mirrors. Tampa’s defense gave up over 350 total yards to Washington and its third-string quarterback, needed four turnovers from the Saints to advance to take on Green Bay, and beat the Packers in spite of three second-half interceptions from Brady. Tampa defensive coordinator Todd Bowles will have to pick his poison defending either Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce, because you cannot do both.
On the other side, the Chiefs’ defense is underrated. Their interior rush from Chris Jones and Frank Clark with be a force. That, along with a solid secondary that does not allow many explosive plays, won’t allow the Buccaneers to keep pace with Mahomes and his explosive offense. I also like the Chiefs -2.5 in the first half (-110) and their team total over 29.5 (-120).
Walder: I’ll be honest; I’m about to ignore our model. FPI likes the Bucs against the spread. It makes the Chiefs just a 0.7-point favorite (we consider it a neutral-site game, but Tampa gets an advantage from lack of travel), and FPI+, our translation of the model to the betting market, makes the Bucs +3 a solid buy.
There’s a pretty important caveat: the Chiefs’ Week 17 game, which they did not play to win, hurt their rating. Kansas City dropped 0.8 points that week in FPI’s rating. But even if we added a full 0.8 points back into the Chiefs’ rating (an oversimplification), FPI would still lean toward the Bucs getting a field goal.
But I just can’t shake that the most predictable way to win a football game is by having the best passing game. While the two teams’ overall passing game numbers aren’t that different, when it’s a clear passing situation -- third/fourth down and 5-plus yards to go, outside of garbage time -- the Chiefs were dramatically better. Poker variations games. And I can’t help but wonder if the Chiefs might just eschew the ground game and lean on Mahomes even more -- as they should -- and unlock an even higher ceiling for their offense.Buccaneers +3
Clay: The Buccaneers have scored three-plus touchdowns in 10 consecutive games. They’re averaging 33 points and allowing 22 during that span. That’s compared to a 29-22 average score for the Chiefs during their past 10 games (excluding Week 17). The Buccaneers’ offense has arguably been better than the Chiefs’ unit as of late, and their defense has been much better all season (fifth in DVOA, compared to 22nd for the Chiefs). Tampa Bay has the arsenal to get the job done..as long as it can avoid the first-quarter defensive meltdown like the one in the Week 12 meeting. My model disagrees with the books/public and actually has the Buccaneers favored 30-27.History of the over/under
There have been 26 overs, 26 unders and one push in Super Bowl history (there was no total in Super Bowl I). In Super Bowl XXXIII, aided by Tim Dwight’s TD kickoff return, 30 points went up in the fourth quarter to crush an under that was sitting pretty.Over 56.5 (-110)
Fulghum: There is just no way I have the stomach to wager the under in a game quarterbacked by Brady and Mahomes. That’s not a sweat I have the stomach for in the fourth quarter. These teams combined for 963 yards of offense when they matched up in Week 12. Despite all that production, the scoreboard rang up just 51 points. If the offenses are that efficient again on Sunday, I imagine we see 60-plus points. Also give me the Chiefs team total over 29.5 (-120) and the Bucs team total over 27.5 (+110).Game propsNo score in first 5 minutes of the game (-135)
Bearman: We have all seen and heard the stat by now: Brady has led his nine previous Super Bowl teams to three total first-quarter points. Good note, but I wouldn’t use that as a barometer, as the Buccaneers are a different team with different players, coaches and game plans. It’s a nice stat, but it’s not the reason I am laying -135 predicting there will be no score the first 5 minutes. For the season, the Chiefs have two touchdowns and two field goals in the first 5 minutes of their 18 games (22.2% of games) and the Bucs have six scores (five TDs, one FG) in their 19 games (31.5%). Combined, the two teams have averaged a score in the first 5 minutes less than 30% of the time. At -135, it’s a buy-low deal before even factoring in Super Bowl nerves, being off for two weeks and the usual feel-out portion of the first 5 minutes.First score history
The first score of the Super Bowl has been a TD 26 times, a FG 25 times and a safety -- with the big payout -- three times, including Super Bowl XLVIII when the first play from scrimmage was snapped over Peyton Manning’s head 12 seconds into the game.Game will be tied at some point after 0-0 (-130)
Kezirian: The point spread suggests we will have a close game, and I agree with that sentiment. The Chiefs offense is too strong and the defense is too leaky for a blowout. The issue is whether the game will be tied beyond 0-0. I believe so. Both coaches are comfortable trusting their quarterback on fourth down, so I feel like field goals will be limited. Also, once a team has the lead, the live betting drive props for the team with the ball reaches higher than -150 often, depending on the down and distance. I can envision several scenarios with that potential.Chiefs -0.5 after first quarter (+105)
Schatz: Believe it or not, Brady has been in the Super Bowl nine times and has a grand total of three points in the first quarter. Will he get his first first-quarter Super Bowl touchdown this year? Even if he does, I think Kansas City has a better chance to be ahead after 15 minutes. Yes, the Chiefs’ M.O. in last year’s postseason was to fall behind early, but they’ve taken a lot of early leads throughout the 2020 season. Kansas City ranks second in offensive DVOA in the first quarter of games. Tampa Bay ranks ninth in offensive DVOA in the first quarter -- and a surprising 26th in defense. The Bucs’ defense this year has generally gotten better as games have gone along.Chiefs margin 7-12 (+450), Bucs margin 1-6 (+340), Chiefs -7.5 (+170)
Bearman: This strategy worked for me last year when KC rallied to beat San Francisco and scored a late TD to win by 11, so let’s roll it back. I see this game working one of two ways: either (1) the Chiefs flex their offensive muscle and the Bucs won’t be able to keep up, ending in a 38-27 game or (2) the Bucs will keep it close and end with some more Brady magic and pull out a squeaker as Brady-led teams have done in five of his six Super Bowl wins (a 31-28 win). I’ve taken the Chiefs -3 already, so I am siding with a Chiefs 7-12 point win for 4.5 times my money with the bonus -7.5 thrown on top. If it goes the other way, +340 isn’t a bad price for a close Bucs win.Super Bowl Betting Games To Play At HomeFirst turnover will be an interception (-160)
Bearman: Our Stats and Information department tells us that since 1995, 25 of the 26 Super Bowls have had at least one turnover, and in those 25 Super Bowls, the first turnover was an interception 21 times (84%). The -160 odds for an interception to be the first turnover is an implied probability of 61.5%, giving us a pretty sizable edge here. You can expand it past just the first turnover and see that 69% of all Super Bowl turnovers dating back to 1994 are interceptions as well. The Bucs and Chiefs defenses recorded 15 and 16 interceptions, respectively, both in the top seven for most in the league. Odds are the pick would come from Brady, as Mahomes had the second-lowest interception percentage in the league, behind only Aaron Rodgers. Sprinkling a little on the Bucs to throw the first pick at -140 is also in play here.Buccaneers more rushing yards than Chiefs (PK, -110)
Johnson: Overall, I project Tampa Bay to rush for more yards over 56% of the time. So at -110, this is a good enough price for me. My projections call for the Buccanneers to rush for more attempts on average and slightly more yards per carry. The reason their run game projects to be more efficient is the fact that Tampa Bay’s rush defense is one of the best in the NFL. Top live casino websites. They ranked top 10 in opponent yards per rush, success rate and EPA. The Kansas City rush defense, on the other hand, ranks bottom 10 in the league in all three of those metrics. Considering Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz are likely both out on the offensive line, I anticipate Reid to utilize Mahomes and his two most dangerous weapons, Kelce and Hill, regularly. There really isn’t any reason for the Chiefs to try and run against this Bucs defense until they are running clock late in the game with a lead. Everything points to Tampa for this prop.Under 7.5 different players with a rush attempt (+140)
Kezirian: This will be an annoying sweat and likely inhibit my enjoyment, but i am still playing it. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darrel Williams, Ronald Jones II and Leonard Fournette will all have a rushing attempt. Both starting quarterbacks will as well, although there is a chance Brady does not. He had four games this season without one. Nonetheless, let’s assume six different ball-carriers. That leaves two others for this bet to lose. We are familiar with Reid’s tendency to use one of his speedsters in the backfield. Could we see two KC guys or one from each team? Sure. The Bucs even iced the NFC Championship with a Chris Godwin rush. But sometimes the coaches will have a wideout throw or use one on a pop-pass, which achieves the same misdirection but the play is recorded as a reception. I am going to take my chances with a conventional game and root against Le’Veon Bell and LeSean McCoy getting opportunities.Longest made FG under 54.5 yards (-340)
Kezirian: This is a fairly high money line, so I cannot blame anyone for avoiding this. However, I think the real juice should be about -550 or -600. As I mentioned earlier, I do not expect many field goals from Tampa Bay. The Bills just illustrated why kicking field goals is not a successful blueprint to defeat the Chiefs, and Bruce Arians just demonstrated that he trusts Brady and the offense on fourth down. Additionally, Ryan Succop is fairly average. In 12 seasons, he is 21 of 39 on kicks beyond 50 yards, and his career-long is 54 yards. That includes connecting on just two of five this year. In terms of losing this prop, Harrison Butker is likely to be my villain. Including the playoffs, he is 14 of 20 over four years on kicks of 50-plus yards. This year, he made kicks of 55 and 58 yards.
The 55-yarder came after KC reached the 37-yard line against Carolina and Mahomes subsequently threw three straight incompletions. The 58-yard bomb came in an overtime win over the Chargers. The Chiefs actually reached the 35-yard line on its third down play but then committed a penalty on its first field-goal attempt, moving them back five yards. These details are important because I have extreme confidence in Kansas City’s offense. So if the Chiefs are in a fourth-and-short or -medium situation, Reid will probably leave his offense on the field. In situations where KC must play for a field goal, such as near the end of a half or a third down with 15 yards to go, I feel the Chiefs can reach a more comfortable distance for their kicker. So many stars need to be perfectly aligned for a made field goal of 55-plus yards, especially when the prop for made kicks is 3.5 and it’s an outdoor stadium that could have some elements.Chiefs over 2.0 sacks (+120)
Marks: There are three defensive coaches on the Chiefs’ staff (DC Steve Spagnuolo, DB coach Dave Merritt and DB/CB coach Sam Madison) that were on the Giants staff when they beat Brady and the Patriots in the 2008 and 2012 Super Bowls. All three know that if you don’t get to Brady, you don’t win. Jones has 7.5 sacks on the season, and Clark had two sacks against the Bills. Expect both to get to Brady through the interior of Tampa’s offensive line.Player propsBrady over 2.5 pass TDs (+140)
Clay: The last time the Buccaneers’ offense didn’t score at least three touchdowns was Week 9 against the Saints. Seriously. That’s a streak of 10 games and includes the Week 12 showdown with this same Chiefs defense. Brady has thrown at least three touchdowns in eight of 19 games and has reached two in each of his past 10. The Chiefs’ defense allowed 29 passing touchdowns during the regular season, which was 11th-most. With a projection of 2.7 and extremely attractive juice (+140), the over makes sense here.Brady under 39.5 pa
https://diarynote.indered.space
*Super Bowl Betting Games To Play At Home
*Fun Super Bowl Betting Games
*Super Bowl Party Betting Games
*College Bowl Game Betting Lines
*Super Bowl At Home Betting Games To Play
The Super Bowl is the most-watched American event of the year, as both casual. Thanks to innovation and tech growth, you’re now able to bet on the big game without ever needing to leave your home, office, or lazy boy. We’re talking about online Super Bowl betting apps! If you want to get into the action fast, but in a safe and reputable manner, check out one of the sports betting sites we’ve listed at the top of.
*The choices with this game are endless with hundreds of props to choose from. By far the easiest and most passive game to play on a Super Bowl Sunday with your friends is “pass the cup”. The game is simple, the players put money into a cup and then it.
*Moneyline Betting. Betting on the moneyline is the easiest Super Bowl bet you can make.
Super Bowl LV is upon us. The Chiefs and Buccaneers are the last teams standing, and ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian (1-2 last week, 23-36-3 overall), Joe Fortenbaugh (1-1, 38-59-1), Anita Marks (7-14, 128-144-2), Preston Johnson (0-0, 16-20), Mike Clay (4-0, 29-18-1), Tyler Fulghum (3-3, 70-96-3), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (0-1, 35-26), Seth Walder (1-2, 54-33) of ESPN Analytics and Aaron Schatz (0-2, 44-53-2) of Football Outsiders are here to tell us what they like for the biggest betting day of the year.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Tuesday; picks on lines available at time of posting.
To jump to each section, click here: Game bets | Game props | Player props | Bonus props | Game script propsSuper Bowl LV best betsKansas City Chiefs (-3, 56.5) vs. Tampa Bay BuccaneersHistory of the spread
Underdogs have covered 12 of the last 20 Super Bowls, but favorites hold a 27-25-2 edge overall. 5dimes sportsbook login. The favored Patriots trailed 28-3 in Super Bowl LI but forced OT and then won -- and covered the 3-point spread -- on James White’s TD on the first possession.Chiefs -3
Kezirian: It’s easy to make a case for each team, so I am excited to watch, and hopefully the Super Bowl will deliver. I am siding with the Chiefs because the offense is not something I want to fade. Obviously, the offensive line injuries concern me. The Tampa defense is also potent, ranking in the top five in both rush and pass defense. But, ultimately, if the Chiefs play remotely close to their best version, no one can hang with them. Tom Brady is a force, but I will take the Chiefs.
Johnson: My main concern for the Bucs and Brady is the pressure that Kansas City was able to generate rushing four against the Bills. Josh Allen was able to evade the pressure and buy time, but even despite that, the coverage for the Chiefs was pristine and Allen wasn’t able to make many plays. Brady’s lack of mobility could wind up being a major issue, and if the counter is dump-offs and check-downs over and over, I imagine Kansas City will absolutely live with that.
My second concern for Tampa Bay is the injuries to their safeties and the fact that they are going up against a Patrick Mahomes-led Andy Reid offense. I don’t envision enough stops for the Bucs ultimately, and I think it’s underpriced at a flat -3.
Fortenbaugh: All the concerns we had about Kansas City at the end of the regular season were answered during the AFC Championship Game when the Chiefs turned a 9-0 deficit into a 21-9 lead in roughly 10 minutes. Tampa Bay ranks fifth in the NFL in blitz rate, but nobody can dissect and defeat the blitz quite like Mahomes.
Bearman: I’ll preface this by saying I don’t like betting against the GOAT. He has proved time and time again that once you think he is done, he turns around and wins another. A seventh Super Bowl title would be the icing on a cake that doesn’t even need icing for TB12 and his legacy. That being said, this is arguably the top opponent Brady has faced in the big game. You have to go back to his first Super Bowl vs. the Rams to find the only other time in the 10 appearances in which he was an underdog. And for good reason. The defending champion Chiefs were my pick back in August (real wise, I know), and I see no reason to back away from it now. The combination of an explosive offense and a good secondary that can slow down the Bucs WRs (Clay notes below that they are among the best at slowing elite WRs) should lead to the game’s first repeat since Brady’s Patriots won back-to-back following 2003-04 seasons. I just don’t see the Bucs being able to keep up score for score in this one.
The Chiefs have looked vulnerable at times, including during a stretch of one cover over nine games, but they still finished 14-2 with the top seed in the AFC. I am not too worried about the cover, because if they win, I believe they cover. The spread has not come into play in the last 11 championship games, with winners being 46-6-2 ATS overall. If you like the Chiefs, lay the 3, especially before it possibly moves to 3.5. Yes, the OL injuries area a concern for KC, but so are the ones in the Bucs secondary. At the end of the day, I am siding with Mahomes beating the Bucs secondary over the Bucs getting to Mahomes.
Schatz: Most of my picks in this column over the course of the season have been based on top-line numbers. But to pick the Super Bowl, I’m going a bit further down. I’ve come around to the ’Kansas City flip the switch’ theory that suggests the Chiefs coasted whenever they had a big lead during the regular season. That depressed their numbers and led to the Chiefs finishing the regular season just sixth in DVOA (fifth without Week 17), while Tampa Bay, despite more losses, was more impressive in the play-by-play breakdown and ranked second. The question is: how much does Kansas City’s performance defending those big late leads mean?
The Chiefs ranked 21st on offense with a lead of more than a touchdown in the fourth quarter and 20th on defense. The Bucs were very good on both sides of the ball in those same situations. Take out those situations, and the Chiefs were the better team this season -- it’s narrow, but they have the edge. And if we look at the AFC Championship Game and the divisional round win over Cleveland before Mahomes got hurt, the Chiefs put up their two best total performances of the year -- strong on defense and spectacular on offense. It’s enough for me to lean toward the Chiefs. If you get a line of 3.5 points, I would lean toward the Bucs, but at 3 I’m picking Kansas City.
Marks: The Buccaneers have reached the Super Bowl with some smoke and mirrors. Tampa’s defense gave up over 350 total yards to Washington and its third-string quarterback, needed four turnovers from the Saints to advance to take on Green Bay, and beat the Packers in spite of three second-half interceptions from Brady. Tampa defensive coordinator Todd Bowles will have to pick his poison defending either Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce, because you cannot do both.
On the other side, the Chiefs’ defense is underrated. Their interior rush from Chris Jones and Frank Clark with be a force. That, along with a solid secondary that does not allow many explosive plays, won’t allow the Buccaneers to keep pace with Mahomes and his explosive offense. I also like the Chiefs -2.5 in the first half (-110) and their team total over 29.5 (-120).
Walder: I’ll be honest; I’m about to ignore our model. FPI likes the Bucs against the spread. It makes the Chiefs just a 0.7-point favorite (we consider it a neutral-site game, but Tampa gets an advantage from lack of travel), and FPI+, our translation of the model to the betting market, makes the Bucs +3 a solid buy.
There’s a pretty important caveat: the Chiefs’ Week 17 game, which they did not play to win, hurt their rating. Kansas City dropped 0.8 points that week in FPI’s rating. But even if we added a full 0.8 points back into the Chiefs’ rating (an oversimplification), FPI would still lean toward the Bucs getting a field goal.
But I just can’t shake that the most predictable way to win a football game is by having the best passing game. While the two teams’ overall passing game numbers aren’t that different, when it’s a clear passing situation -- third/fourth down and 5-plus yards to go, outside of garbage time -- the Chiefs were dramatically better. Poker variations games. And I can’t help but wonder if the Chiefs might just eschew the ground game and lean on Mahomes even more -- as they should -- and unlock an even higher ceiling for their offense.Buccaneers +3
Clay: The Buccaneers have scored three-plus touchdowns in 10 consecutive games. They’re averaging 33 points and allowing 22 during that span. That’s compared to a 29-22 average score for the Chiefs during their past 10 games (excluding Week 17). The Buccaneers’ offense has arguably been better than the Chiefs’ unit as of late, and their defense has been much better all season (fifth in DVOA, compared to 22nd for the Chiefs). Tampa Bay has the arsenal to get the job done..as long as it can avoid the first-quarter defensive meltdown like the one in the Week 12 meeting. My model disagrees with the books/public and actually has the Buccaneers favored 30-27.History of the over/under
There have been 26 overs, 26 unders and one push in Super Bowl history (there was no total in Super Bowl I). In Super Bowl XXXIII, aided by Tim Dwight’s TD kickoff return, 30 points went up in the fourth quarter to crush an under that was sitting pretty.Over 56.5 (-110)
Fulghum: There is just no way I have the stomach to wager the under in a game quarterbacked by Brady and Mahomes. That’s not a sweat I have the stomach for in the fourth quarter. These teams combined for 963 yards of offense when they matched up in Week 12. Despite all that production, the scoreboard rang up just 51 points. If the offenses are that efficient again on Sunday, I imagine we see 60-plus points. Also give me the Chiefs team total over 29.5 (-120) and the Bucs team total over 27.5 (+110).Game propsNo score in first 5 minutes of the game (-135)
Bearman: We have all seen and heard the stat by now: Brady has led his nine previous Super Bowl teams to three total first-quarter points. Good note, but I wouldn’t use that as a barometer, as the Buccaneers are a different team with different players, coaches and game plans. It’s a nice stat, but it’s not the reason I am laying -135 predicting there will be no score the first 5 minutes. For the season, the Chiefs have two touchdowns and two field goals in the first 5 minutes of their 18 games (22.2% of games) and the Bucs have six scores (five TDs, one FG) in their 19 games (31.5%). Combined, the two teams have averaged a score in the first 5 minutes less than 30% of the time. At -135, it’s a buy-low deal before even factoring in Super Bowl nerves, being off for two weeks and the usual feel-out portion of the first 5 minutes.First score history
The first score of the Super Bowl has been a TD 26 times, a FG 25 times and a safety -- with the big payout -- three times, including Super Bowl XLVIII when the first play from scrimmage was snapped over Peyton Manning’s head 12 seconds into the game.Game will be tied at some point after 0-0 (-130)
Kezirian: The point spread suggests we will have a close game, and I agree with that sentiment. The Chiefs offense is too strong and the defense is too leaky for a blowout. The issue is whether the game will be tied beyond 0-0. I believe so. Both coaches are comfortable trusting their quarterback on fourth down, so I feel like field goals will be limited. Also, once a team has the lead, the live betting drive props for the team with the ball reaches higher than -150 often, depending on the down and distance. I can envision several scenarios with that potential.Chiefs -0.5 after first quarter (+105)
Schatz: Believe it or not, Brady has been in the Super Bowl nine times and has a grand total of three points in the first quarter. Will he get his first first-quarter Super Bowl touchdown this year? Even if he does, I think Kansas City has a better chance to be ahead after 15 minutes. Yes, the Chiefs’ M.O. in last year’s postseason was to fall behind early, but they’ve taken a lot of early leads throughout the 2020 season. Kansas City ranks second in offensive DVOA in the first quarter of games. Tampa Bay ranks ninth in offensive DVOA in the first quarter -- and a surprising 26th in defense. The Bucs’ defense this year has generally gotten better as games have gone along.Chiefs margin 7-12 (+450), Bucs margin 1-6 (+340), Chiefs -7.5 (+170)
Bearman: This strategy worked for me last year when KC rallied to beat San Francisco and scored a late TD to win by 11, so let’s roll it back. I see this game working one of two ways: either (1) the Chiefs flex their offensive muscle and the Bucs won’t be able to keep up, ending in a 38-27 game or (2) the Bucs will keep it close and end with some more Brady magic and pull out a squeaker as Brady-led teams have done in five of his six Super Bowl wins (a 31-28 win). I’ve taken the Chiefs -3 already, so I am siding with a Chiefs 7-12 point win for 4.5 times my money with the bonus -7.5 thrown on top. If it goes the other way, +340 isn’t a bad price for a close Bucs win.Super Bowl Betting Games To Play At HomeFirst turnover will be an interception (-160)
Bearman: Our Stats and Information department tells us that since 1995, 25 of the 26 Super Bowls have had at least one turnover, and in those 25 Super Bowls, the first turnover was an interception 21 times (84%). The -160 odds for an interception to be the first turnover is an implied probability of 61.5%, giving us a pretty sizable edge here. You can expand it past just the first turnover and see that 69% of all Super Bowl turnovers dating back to 1994 are interceptions as well. The Bucs and Chiefs defenses recorded 15 and 16 interceptions, respectively, both in the top seven for most in the league. Odds are the pick would come from Brady, as Mahomes had the second-lowest interception percentage in the league, behind only Aaron Rodgers. Sprinkling a little on the Bucs to throw the first pick at -140 is also in play here.Buccaneers more rushing yards than Chiefs (PK, -110)
Johnson: Overall, I project Tampa Bay to rush for more yards over 56% of the time. So at -110, this is a good enough price for me. My projections call for the Buccanneers to rush for more attempts on average and slightly more yards per carry. The reason their run game projects to be more efficient is the fact that Tampa Bay’s rush defense is one of the best in the NFL. Top live casino websites. They ranked top 10 in opponent yards per rush, success rate and EPA. The Kansas City rush defense, on the other hand, ranks bottom 10 in the league in all three of those metrics. Considering Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz are likely both out on the offensive line, I anticipate Reid to utilize Mahomes and his two most dangerous weapons, Kelce and Hill, regularly. There really isn’t any reason for the Chiefs to try and run against this Bucs defense until they are running clock late in the game with a lead. Everything points to Tampa for this prop.Under 7.5 different players with a rush attempt (+140)
Kezirian: This will be an annoying sweat and likely inhibit my enjoyment, but i am still playing it. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darrel Williams, Ronald Jones II and Leonard Fournette will all have a rushing attempt. Both starting quarterbacks will as well, although there is a chance Brady does not. He had four games this season without one. Nonetheless, let’s assume six different ball-carriers. That leaves two others for this bet to lose. We are familiar with Reid’s tendency to use one of his speedsters in the backfield. Could we see two KC guys or one from each team? Sure. The Bucs even iced the NFC Championship with a Chris Godwin rush. But sometimes the coaches will have a wideout throw or use one on a pop-pass, which achieves the same misdirection but the play is recorded as a reception. I am going to take my chances with a conventional game and root against Le’Veon Bell and LeSean McCoy getting opportunities.Longest made FG under 54.5 yards (-340)
Kezirian: This is a fairly high money line, so I cannot blame anyone for avoiding this. However, I think the real juice should be about -550 or -600. As I mentioned earlier, I do not expect many field goals from Tampa Bay. The Bills just illustrated why kicking field goals is not a successful blueprint to defeat the Chiefs, and Bruce Arians just demonstrated that he trusts Brady and the offense on fourth down. Additionally, Ryan Succop is fairly average. In 12 seasons, he is 21 of 39 on kicks beyond 50 yards, and his career-long is 54 yards. That includes connecting on just two of five this year. In terms of losing this prop, Harrison Butker is likely to be my villain. Including the playoffs, he is 14 of 20 over four years on kicks of 50-plus yards. This year, he made kicks of 55 and 58 yards.
The 55-yarder came after KC reached the 37-yard line against Carolina and Mahomes subsequently threw three straight incompletions. The 58-yard bomb came in an overtime win over the Chargers. The Chiefs actually reached the 35-yard line on its third down play but then committed a penalty on its first field-goal attempt, moving them back five yards. These details are important because I have extreme confidence in Kansas City’s offense. So if the Chiefs are in a fourth-and-short or -medium situation, Reid will probably leave his offense on the field. In situations where KC must play for a field goal, such as near the end of a half or a third down with 15 yards to go, I feel the Chiefs can reach a more comfortable distance for their kicker. So many stars need to be perfectly aligned for a made field goal of 55-plus yards, especially when the prop for made kicks is 3.5 and it’s an outdoor stadium that could have some elements.Chiefs over 2.0 sacks (+120)
Marks: There are three defensive coaches on the Chiefs’ staff (DC Steve Spagnuolo, DB coach Dave Merritt and DB/CB coach Sam Madison) that were on the Giants staff when they beat Brady and the Patriots in the 2008 and 2012 Super Bowls. All three know that if you don’t get to Brady, you don’t win. Jones has 7.5 sacks on the season, and Clark had two sacks against the Bills. Expect both to get to Brady through the interior of Tampa’s offensive line.Player propsBrady over 2.5 pass TDs (+140)
Clay: The last time the Buccaneers’ offense didn’t score at least three touchdowns was Week 9 against the Saints. Seriously. That’s a streak of 10 games and includes the Week 12 showdown with this same Chiefs defense. Brady has thrown at least three touchdowns in eight of 19 games and has reached two in each of his past 10. The Chiefs’ defense allowed 29 passing touchdowns during the regular season, which was 11th-most. With a projection of 2.7 and extremely attractive juice (+140), the over makes sense here.Brady under 39.5 pa
https://diarynote.indered.space
コメント